Understanding Retirement Planning: The Hidden Risk in Your Financial Strategy

/ Investment Services, Loan / By Lisa Weil

Planning for retirement is key to a secure financial future. But, it’s more complex than just adding to your 401(k) or IRA. A big risk is the sequence of returns you get, known as sequence of returns risk¹. This risk can greatly affect how long and well your retirement savings will last, even if your average returns are good.

As you get closer to and enter retirement, the timing and order of your investment returns matter a lot². Bad returns early in retirement can quickly eat away at your savings. This is a critical but often missed part of retirement planning that you should pay attention to.

Key Takeaways

Sequence of returns risk can have a major impact on the longevity of your retirement portfolio, even with consistent average annual returns.
Poor investment returns early in retirement can significantly reduce the value of your savings and limit your withdrawal capacity.
Asset allocation, diversification, and strategies like the “bucket approach” can help mitigate sequence of returns risk.
Stress testing and financial modeling can identify vulnerabilities in your retirement plan and optimize your investment strategy.
Collaborating with a financial advisor can help you navigate sequence of returns risk and develop a personalized retirement plan.

The Importance of Addressing Sequence of Returns Risk

What is Sequence of Returns Risk?

Sequence of returns risk, also known as retirement timing risk, is a big deal in retirement planning. It’s the risk of having bad investment returns early in retirement³. If you retire when the market is down, it can really cut into your retirement savings. In some cases, you might have to take less money from your savings or even run out of money³. It’s crucial to tackle this risk to make sure your retirement savings last.

Let’s say two investors start with $1 million and take out $50,000 a year, adjusting for inflation. One has a 15% drop in value early on, the other later³. The early loss can drain the portfolio fast, making it run out of money³.

Rob Williams from Schwab Center for Financial Research suggests keeping a cash reserve for a year’s expenses and bonds for two to four years³. You can also reduce withdrawals, skip inflation increases, or delay big buys to avoid selling when the market is low³.

Asset Class	Characteristics	Sequence of Returns Risk
Equities	Generally more volatile than other asset classes	Significant impact on portfolio value in early retirement years
Fixed-Income	Sensitive to changes in interest rates, can lead to capital losses	Bonds may be preferred to preserve portfolio value when withdrawing
Cash and Cash Equivalents	Provide stability but generate lower returns	Reliance on cash in low-interest-rate environments can erode purchasing power
Real Estate	Values can be influenced by various economic conditions	Downturn in real estate market can exacerbate sequence risk
Other Alternative Investments	May offer diversification benefits but can be more volatile	Alternative investments may leave investors more exposed to portfolio losses

Sequence of returns risk can really affect your retirement savings. By understanding this risk and using strategies to reduce it, you can make sure your retirement money lasts³⁴⁵.

Visualizing the Impact of Sequence of Returns

To really get how sequence of returns risk affects your retirement portfolio, let’s look at an example. Imagine two investors, “Investor A” and “Investor B,” who both start retirement with $3 million in their investment returns. Over 25 years, both see an average annual return of 7%. But, the portfolio withdrawals and portfolio longevity outcomes differ greatly because of the sequence of returns they get.

Investor A’s portfolio sees four years of -10% returns at the start of retirement, known as the “retirement red zone.”⁶ Even with the same long-term average return, this early negative sequence hurts the portfolio’s growth and speeds up asset depletion. Investor A runs out of money in the 19th year of retirement.

On the other hand, Investor B’s portfolio gets 10% returns for 21 years, then four years of -10% returns later on⁷. With the same average return overall, this better sequence lets Investor B’s portfolio grow to over $6,450,000 by the end of 25 years, even with the last four years of negative returns⁷.

This example shows how sequence of returns deeply affects a retirement portfolio⁸. Those who see negative returns early in retirement risk running out of savings faster, even if their long-term returns are similar to those with a better sequence⁸.

“Sequence of returns risk affects individuals throughout their entire investing lives, leading to unpredictable differences in wealth accumulation and sustainable withdrawal rates among investors.”⁸

Strategies to Mitigate Sequence of Returns Risk

Planning for retirement means tackling hidden risks that could hurt your financial plans. One big risk is the sequence of returns, which can greatly affect your retirement income and how long your money lasts⁹.

Asset Allocation and Diversification

Having a smart asset allocation plan can help fight sequence of returns risk. By spreading your money across different types of investments like stocks, bonds, and alternatives, you lessen the risk of losing money when the market drops¹⁰. This way, your retirement savings aren’t all in one basket, making you less exposed to market ups and downs.

Stress Testing and Financial Modeling

Stress testing and financial modeling are also key in tackling sequence of returns risk. They let you test how your retirement savings might do in tough market times. This helps you see how your investments could be affected and plan better¹¹. You can then make smart choices to protect your retirement income, like changing how much you take out or finding new income sources.

Strategies	Description
Asset Allocation and Diversification	Diversifying your portfolio across various asset classes can reduce vulnerability to market downturns and provide a buffer against unpredictable market cycles.
Stress Testing and Financial Modeling	Simulating market scenarios, including periods of volatility and downturns, can help identify and address sequence of returns risk, allowing for informed decision-making and implementation of protective measures.

Using these strategies can make you better prepared for the risks of sequence of returns. Being proactive and spreading your investments can help you handle market ups and downs. This way, you can feel more secure about your retirement plans⁹¹⁰¹¹.

Retirement Planning and Income Strategies

Planning for retirement is key to financial security. It’s important to look at different ways to make sure you have enough money in retirement. The bucket approach and using buffer assets are two strategies that can help manage risks and keep your income steady.

The Bucket Approach

The bucket approach splits your investments into three groups: short-term, mid-term, and long-term. The short-term bucket is for your immediate needs and includes safe assets like cash. The mid-term bucket has investments that are less risky, and the long-term bucket aims for higher returns over time¹².

This method helps reduce the risk of losing money in the market. It makes sure you have enough money for now from safe investments. This lets the rest of your money grow back when the market goes down.

Buffer Assets and Lines of Credit

Using buffer assets and lines of credit is another strategy to think about. Buffer assets, like the cash value of life insurance or a home equity line of credit, don’t lose value with the market. They can be used to pay for expenses when the market is down, giving your other investments time to bounce back¹³.

Adding these strategies to your retirement plan can make it more secure and stable. By spreading out your investments and using different sources of income, you’re more likely to meet your retirement goals¹².

“Effective retirement planning involves not just accumulating assets, but also carefully managing the withdrawal and distribution of those assets to ensure a steady and sustainable income stream throughout retirement.”

Retirement Planning: A Collaborative Effort

Retirement planning is a journey you share with your wealth advisor. They are key in helping you reach a secure and fulfilling retirement¹⁴. Your advisor knows a lot about making your retirement income last. They can help you deal with risks and make a plan just for you¹⁴.

Working with your advisor means getting help with things like tax-smart accounts and planning for taxes. They can also guide you on estate planning, managing risks, and planning for healthcare costs¹⁴. This ensures your retirement plans match your financial health¹⁴.

Teaming up with your advisor means you get to use everyone’s knowledge and skills together. You can set common retirement goals and check your finances to make sure you’re on the right track¹⁵. You’ll also get advice on how to spread out your investments based on your risk level and goals¹⁵.

It’s important to keep checking and adjusting your retirement plan with your advisor’s help. This is because the market and your life can change¹⁵. Working together also means you have support and motivation to keep saving. It helps you stay focused during tough times¹⁵.

By working closely with your financial advisor, you can tackle retirement planning with confidence. This way, you make sure your savings are safe and your dream retirement happens¹⁶. This is especially true if you face extra challenges, like not being part of a workplace retirement plan or needing to wait to start Social Security¹⁶.

Benefit of Collaborative Retirement Planning	Description
Shared Knowledge and Expertise	Allows individuals to benefit from diverse perspectives, insights, and knowledge.
Risk Diversification	Enables risk diversification by spreading investment assets across different asset classes.
Economies of Scale	Combining resources may provide access to investment opportunities and financial products not feasible individually.
Mutual Support and Accountability	Fosters mutual support and encouragement among participants, motivating each other to stay on track with retirement savings goals.

“Retirement planning is a lifelong journey, and having the right financial advisor by your side can make all the difference in achieving your goals.”

Remember, your retirement planning is a team effort. Your financial advisor is a key partner in managing your wealth and reaching your retirement goals¹⁴¹⁵¹⁶.

Conclusion

Retirement planning is key to managing your finances well. Start early, spread out your investments, and keep an eye on your retirement accounts. This way, you can look forward to a secure and comfy retirement¹⁷.

It’s important to think about everything that could affect your retirement. This includes how your investments do over time, how you’ll make money, and what you might need for healthcare later on¹⁸. Working with financial experts can help make sure your dreams for retirement come true, even when the market changes or life throws surprises¹⁹.

Retirement planning doesn’t stop once you start. It’s an ongoing process that changes as your needs and goals do. Keep learning, adjust your plans, and enjoy the path to a rewarding and financially safe retirement. Your future self will be grateful for the effort you put into planning now.

FAQ

What is sequence of returns risk?

Sequence of returns risk, also known as retirement timing risk, is a big worry for retirees. It happens when you retire and the market drops. This can make your retirement savings last much shorter.

How can sequence of returns risk impact retirement savings?

If the market is down when you retire, you might have to take less money from your savings. In the worst cases, you could run out of money before you die.

What strategies can help mitigate sequence of returns risk?

To fight this risk, check how your investments are spread out. Make sure they include stocks, bonds, and maybe other options. Testing your investments can also show which ones are most at risk.

How can a bucket strategy help protect retirement savings?

A bucket strategy divides your money into three parts: short-term, mid-term, and long-term. This way, you keep your short-term money safe with low-risk investments. It helps protect your savings from market ups and downs.

What is the role of a financial advisor in retirement planning?

A financial advisor knows a lot about making your retirement income last. They can suggest the best way to handle sequence of returns risk for you. They’re key in making a plan that fits your goals, how much risk you can take, and when you want to retire.

Source Links